Who Will Win The Last Presidential Debate?

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With less than two weeks until Election Day, Thursday marks the final time President Trump and Joe Biden will face off in a presidential debate. As in previous debates, we’re partnering with Ipsos to see how voters react to the candidates. The poll uses Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel to check in with the same group of people twice — before and after the debate — to see whether the debate affects their views of the candidates or the race itself.

Biden but many still think Trump has a good chance of winning

How likely respondents are to vote for each candidate and how likely they think each candidate is to win, on a scale from 0 (no chance) to 10 (absolutely certain)

How likely are you to vote for each?

How likely do you think each is to win?

Respondents were also given the option of third-party candidates or ‘someone else.’ Additionally, they could indicate that they will not vote.

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Respondents are very sure of who they plan to vote for: 45 percent of respondents said they are “absolutely certain” to vote for Biden and 32 percent said the same of Trump. Very few are torn — just 2 percent said they were split 50-50 between Biden and Trump.

However, despite Biden’s commanding lead in the polls and among the respondents in our survey, many remain skeptical that he can win the presidency. Overall, 37 percent of respondents said either Trump or Biden was “absolutely certain” to win, while 16 percent thought it was a total toss-up (50-50).


Supporters are more certain of their vote than they are excited to vote

How likely and how excited respondents are to vote in the 2020 presidential election, by preferred candidate

Trump

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How likely are you to vote?

How excited are you to vote?

Biden

How likely are you to vote?

How excited are you to vote?

We grouped respondents by which candidate they gave the higher score to (out of 10). Respondents who gave both candidates the same score are not included. Respondents who already voted are included in the “absolutely certain” bucket and respondents who gave themselves a 50-50 shot of voting are included in the “not too likely” bucket.

A large share of Biden and Trump’s supporters said they were “absolutely certain” to vote, and that includes a huge chunk that has already voted: 44 percent of Biden’s backers and 24 percent of Trump’s. Enthusiasm wasn’t quite as high, with just under half of each candidate’s supporters saying they were “very excited” to vote.

The popularity contest

How favorably respondents rated each candidate

We’re also tracking how favorably respondents view Biden and Trump. One thing that’s immediately obvious is Biden remains a lot more popular than Trump: His net favorability (favorable rating minus unfavorable rating) is +4, while Trump’s is -24. The share that say they have a “very unfavorable” opinion of Trump is quite high, too — 52 percent, compared to 35 percent for Biden.

In the last presidential debate, the candidates’ favorability numbers changed more than their support among respondents, so we’ll see whether this debate has a similar effect — or whether the moderator’s ability to mute the candidates means that there will be less movement than last time.

Biden

Trump

VeryunfavorableSomewhatunfavorableVeryfavorableSomewhatfavorable

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