Politics Podcast: Why Polls Were Off In 2020, And Why They Weren’t That Bad

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The polls in 2020 weren’t great. The presidential polls were off by somewhere in the range of four points, which is notably larger than the recent average error of 2.3 points. In this installment of “Model Talk” on the FiveThirtyEight Politics podcast, Nate and Galen discuss why a polling error of even four points isn’t that unexpected, offer reasons for why the error occurred and discuss the usefulness of polling and modeling going forward.


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